Home Services Macroeconomic & policy analysis

For governments & ministries

Macroeconomic and policy analysis

We simulate how a policy moves through the whole economy — every sector, every household group and the public budget — so options can be compared on evidence before they are implemented.

Why it matters

Policies rarely stay where they are aimed.

A change in energy prices reaches transport, manufacturing, food prices and household budgets. A new tax shifts investment, employment and trade. Looking at one sector at a time misses most of the story.

Economy-wide models capture these links. They let you see the direct effect of a policy and its knock-on effects together — and compare them across reform options before any decision is taken.

What we do

From the baseline to the policy brief.

01

Baseline projections

A consistent picture of where the economy is heading under current policies: growth, sectors, employment, trade and public finances over the medium term. Every scenario is measured against it.

02

Policy scenario simulation

Each reform option is run against the baseline in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, showing direct and indirect effects across sectors, markets and prices.

03

Fiscal and distributional impact

Who gains, who pays and what it means for the budget — by sector, by household group and over time — so reforms can be designed with the right compensation measures.

04

Policy briefings

Results translated into clear briefings for ministers and technical teams, in Arabic and English, with the assumptions and limits stated plainly.

Typical questions

Questions we help ministries answer

Every study starts from a concrete policy question. These are some we are typically asked.

  • What happens to growth, jobs and inflation if energy subsidies are phased out — and how fast should it be done?
  • How will a VAT increase or a new excise tax affect revenues, prices and household welfare?
  • Which sectors gain and which lose from a trade agreement or a tariff change?
  • What is the economy-wide return on a public investment programme?
  • Where is the economy heading over the next five to ten years if policies stay as they are?

Models in national planning

One model rarely answers every planning question.

National planning works best with a suite of linked models, each built for a different horizon and purpose — and each feeding the others.

Horizon: decades

Long-term strategy model

Natural and human resources, oil, water and energy set against long-term strategic targets — such as doubling income per head — to shape the long-term strategy and show the cost of depleting non-renewable resources.

Horizon: the plan period

Sectoral CGE model

Energy prices and output, Suez Canal revenues, tourism, human resources and public investment feed an economy-wide model that sets sectoral growth, employment, savings, investment, exports and imports — and the plan’s financial requirements and ceilings.

Horizon: 1–2 years

Short-term implementation model

Public spending, energy, world trade and fiscal and monetary policy drive short-term forecasts of GDP and its components, spending and sectoral employment — used for policy analysis, plan monitoring and estimating the plan’s base year.

State revenues

Energy, oil and gas models

Prices and production of oil and gas, which drive a large share of state revenues and feed every other model in the suite.

Specialised models

Regional & balanced developmentEmploymentProductionInvestment incentivesSuez CanalExport support

What planning models deliver

From model runs to the plan document.

Model results only matter once they reach the people who decide. In national planning they feed directly into the plan itself.

  • Data collection, analysis and consistency checks
  • Plan scenarios — many alternatives, compared side by side
  • Plan tables and economic indicators
  • Supporting studies
  • Follow-up reports and achievement reports
  • The macroeconomic chapters of the plan

How a CGE study works

Four steps from data to decision.

01

Build the data foundation

National accounts, input-output tables and household surveys are organised into a Social Accounting Matrix.

02

Calibrate the model

The model is calibrated so it reproduces the economy as it is today, with documented parameters.

03

Project the baseline

The economy is projected forward under current policies to give the reference path.

04

Simulate the options

Each policy option is simulated and compared with the baseline, with sensitivity tests on key assumptions.

The next conversation

Have a policy option to test?

Tell us about the decision in front of you. We will come back with how we would approach it — the questions, the data and the method.