For governments & ministries
We simulate how a policy moves through the whole economy — every sector, every household group and the public budget — so options can be compared on evidence before they are implemented.
Why it matters
A change in energy prices reaches transport, manufacturing, food prices and household budgets. A new tax shifts investment, employment and trade. Looking at one sector at a time misses most of the story.
Economy-wide models capture these links. They let you see the direct effect of a policy and its knock-on effects together — and compare them across reform options before any decision is taken.
What we do
01
A consistent picture of where the economy is heading under current policies: growth, sectors, employment, trade and public finances over the medium term. Every scenario is measured against it.
02
Each reform option is run against the baseline in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, showing direct and indirect effects across sectors, markets and prices.
03
Who gains, who pays and what it means for the budget — by sector, by household group and over time — so reforms can be designed with the right compensation measures.
04
Results translated into clear briefings for ministers and technical teams, in Arabic and English, with the assumptions and limits stated plainly.
Typical questions
Every study starts from a concrete policy question. These are some we are typically asked.
Models in national planning
National planning works best with a suite of linked models, each built for a different horizon and purpose — and each feeding the others.
Horizon: decades
Natural and human resources, oil, water and energy set against long-term strategic targets — such as doubling income per head — to shape the long-term strategy and show the cost of depleting non-renewable resources.
Horizon: the plan period
Energy prices and output, Suez Canal revenues, tourism, human resources and public investment feed an economy-wide model that sets sectoral growth, employment, savings, investment, exports and imports — and the plan’s financial requirements and ceilings.
Horizon: 1–2 years
Public spending, energy, world trade and fiscal and monetary policy drive short-term forecasts of GDP and its components, spending and sectoral employment — used for policy analysis, plan monitoring and estimating the plan’s base year.
State revenues
Prices and production of oil and gas, which drive a large share of state revenues and feed every other model in the suite.
Specialised models
What planning models deliver
Model results only matter once they reach the people who decide. In national planning they feed directly into the plan itself.
How a CGE study works
01
National accounts, input-output tables and household surveys are organised into a Social Accounting Matrix.
02
The model is calibrated so it reproduces the economy as it is today, with documented parameters.
03
The economy is projected forward under current policies to give the reference path.
04
Each policy option is simulated and compared with the baseline, with sensitivity tests on key assumptions.
The next conversation
Tell us about the decision in front of you. We will come back with how we would approach it — the questions, the data and the method.
